I am in no position to assess any economist thesis. However, there are certain universally unbreakable rules one of which is the foundational assumption must be valid. That is where I have issues with many PRC-related economic theses. If someone predicts anything related to the PRC, I would like to know first the basis no matter how prominent he is. If he says it is based on the gov's planned GDP growth rate and its promise to promote private businesses, I would run away from him immediately and fast. I just do not know how in principle anyone can predict with confidence and specificity how the PRC will move under a mafia. I grew up among CCP bureaucrats and still keep in touch with people inside and outside the system in the PRC.  I am fairly sure about the direction of the middle school dropout - broad regression, but I dare not predict the specific turns and timing. I had no clue the MSD would wipe out the education service overnight even though I knew private education was on b...

 Like any issue nowadays, there is misinformation on both sides of EV.  On one end is a religious belief in EV treating it as a silver bullet to remedy all kinds of environmental issues with all upsides and no downsides. On the other end is absurd claims against EVs by people who apparently have never used an EV.  For example, a popular Facebook post  gives people the impression that it is easy for EVs to get stuck on highways to become roadblocks (I suspect the author modified the post later to moderate the tone).  The heating systems of modern EVs use compressors, so they are very efficient. Even a half-charged EV can keep the driver warm for 10 to 20 hours.  For an EV, it comes down to two metrics regarding environmental impact no matter how one analyzes it: MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent). It means how many miles an EV can drive with the electricity generated by 1 gallon of gasoline. Most EVs have MPGe over 100.  Lifetime greenhouse gas (GHG) em...

If I were Putin, I would have invaded Ukraine because this is what Putin saw in over a decade: Russia: 2000 brutal Chechen War II, costly but successful. 2008 Russo-Georgian War, success with 20% Georgian territory under Russian control currently. 2014 Crimea annexation, a spectacular success with little cost. The West, led by Germany, warmed quickly to Russia after the initial sanction. 2015 Syrian operation, another spectacular success by crushing Syrian opposition forces supported by the West. West: The trillion $ Iraq war ended disastrously with US’s arch-enemy Iran controlling the country. The trillion $ Afghan war ended with a spectacular fiasco and a country firmly in the PRC’s hands. The West did nothing after the PRC broke its promise and militarized the SCS. The US president has been working diligently on the wrongdoing list handed to him by the PRC one item after another. The US passed intelligence about Russia to the PRC which in turn passed it all to Putin. Don’t these fac...

Twitter suspended my account because I posted the following tweet with the video: "Does this forced removal remind you of something that happened over 8 decades ago? By no means do they deserve this, but I would like to point out an irony: many of them likely support regular forced removals of Uyghurs for a different reason. " Many similar videos have been posted on Twitter. I suspect they suspended my account because I used the word "Uyghurs" to which the CCP is highly sensitive. The suspension appears automatic.   

Finally finished watching Oliver Stone's Ukraine On Fire . It took me 3 days. I had no idea Stone was a first-rate propagandist. I thought he was just a typical Hollywood doper. Allow me just make three points.  1. Like any typical propaganda, Stone presents only one side or a few spots of one side of a story. The big difference between Stone and any typical CCP propagandist is that Stone makes his story look extensively researched with reviews from a slew of people. All the interviewed people are from Putin's side, but not everyone knows them well, so I can imagine innocent people falling for his narrative. He does not even bother to pretend to show the argument from the other side. 2. He also tries to show the historical background of the events, but in an extremely highly selective way to show all the problems of Ukrainians while completely avoiding the massive tragedies caused by the Soviets. Ukrainian soil is among the richest but 3.5 M Ukrainians died during the Holodomor...

 The Western delusion about the PRC regarding Putin’s invasion is almost unbearable. It is extremely baffling because the CCP is not hiding its views. Many in the West still lack the fundamental understanding of the CCP.   Allow me to share some basic understanding of the CCP relevant to Putin’s slaughter. I know the CCP’s mindset well because that is what grew up with thanks to intensive brainwashing. I also happened to be able to access CCP’s internal documents when I was a kid.  I will try to be brief by skipping rehashing the CCP’s history. The basic way of CCP’s operation has never changed since its inception. You see the same pattern in its entire history. They start with a fairly simple view of the world which can change back and forth over time, then devise the so-called “line, principles, and policies” ( 路线、方针、政策 ). I prefer translating them to “direction, strategy, and policy” (DSP). The CCP's politburo sets the DSP (now the middle school dropout is ...

 I see people talking about China experts wrt their Chinese proficiency again.  As an ordinary longtime observer of China experts and a consumer of their information, I’d like to share my perspective.  Is proficiency in Chinese required for a good understanding of China? No. Is it very useful in this regard? Yes, absolutely in theory, but depends in reality. It can be very helpful or can make one delusional. Let me explain it. First, I need to give myself some credentials as a reasonably informed ordinary observer. I grew up in China and speak Chinese. I saw first-hand how the CCP functions, often at dinner tables with my parents and their colleagues inside the government. I still have folks in the PRC sharing information with me, some of which I cannot fully disclose for their safety. Now, let’s look at the usefulness or the limits of Chinese proficiency. We are 22 years into the 21st century now. For important documents such as the Xinjiang Papers, there are English ver...

Let me use a few historical facts to make the point that the CCP under the middle school dropout (a.k.a. General Secretary Xi) has lost its competitive edge. It is an indisputable fact that the CCP has beaten its opponents multiple times. For example, it beat the KMT and took over China. It has been beating the US in most aspects for the past few decades. IMHO, its success can be attributed to two factors:  They do not play by rules or respect contracts/agreements while their competitors do.   Pragmatism at a few critical points. Examples for #1: They agreed and promised everyone that they would fight the Imperial Japanese Army but instead, they colluded with the IJA and backstabbed the KMT which troops were making extraordinary sacrifices to fight the invaders.  They promised a lot of things while trying to join the WTO by fooling the US but largely ignored them. The CCP does not even bother to abide by the very constitution devised by themselves. To the CCP...

There is a good chance that the middle school dropout’s (a.k.a. General Secretary Xi) zero-tolerance idiocy will generate a situation very similar to that created by Mao’s Great Leap idiocy though not at the same scale of mass deaths but in terms of the power struggle and economy. I never believe Mao used the Great Leap to kill people in mass despite he was a ruthless monster. I believe he intended to generate an economic great leap. His biggest sin was continuing his idiocy when he already knew it caused mass starvation. Mao also purged those trying to stop his idiocy. In other words, the famine could have killed 10 million instead of 40 million if Mao had had some appreciation for human lives. The MSD’s zero-tolerance is generating a lot of pain for the people and businesses. I am sure some senior CCP officials have realized this because it is so obvious but they dare not to challenge the MSD. The MSD may purge those challenging his idiocy until the country can no longer bear it....

 It is challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by COVID vaccines. The easiest and quickest way is comparing a country with high a high vaccination rate with a country with a low vaccination rate. Russia has a low vaccination rate and there are questions about the efficacy of its COVID vaccine. To be conservative in estimating the number of Americans saved by the vaccines, let us suppose vaccines have not helped Russia, so its excess deaths represent what would happen to a country without the benefits of vaccines. Though Russia's vaccination rate has reached 50%, most of excess deaths occurred when the vaccination rate was below 30. Russia has 7,154 excess deaths per million by December 30, 2021. If the US had this excess death rate, the total excess deaths would be about 2.4 million.  The US had 909,943 reported excess deaths by November 28, 2021. Considering the data delay, to be conservative again, let us assume the US had 1 million excess deaths by December 30, 20...