Common issue of theses on PRC economy

I am in no position to assess any economist thesis. However, there are certain universally unbreakable rules one of which is the foundational assumption must be valid. That is where I have issues with many PRC-related economic theses.

If someone predicts anything related to the PRC, I would like to know first the basis no matter how prominent he is. If he says it is based on the gov's planned GDP growth rate and its promise to promote private businesses, I would run away from him immediately and fast.

I just do not know how in principle anyone can predict with confidence and specificity how the PRC will move under a mafia. I grew up among CCP bureaucrats and still keep in touch with people inside and outside the system in the PRC. 

I am fairly sure about the direction of the middle school dropout - broad regression, but I dare not predict the specific turns and timing. I had no clue the MSD would wipe out the education service overnight even though I knew private education was on borrowed time.

When I heard a very prominent economist in an interview advocating to short US$ and long CN￥ two weeks ago, I was wondering if had any direct channel to the MSD's inner circle to gain some clue about how they planned to manipulate CN￥ this year.

Well, US$ has gained 2% over CN￥ since his advice.



I have no clue how the CCP is going to manipulate CN￥. Any direction would not surprise me in the coming months.

I have little confidence in the PRC's macro numbers. I rely on reports from the streets to have some sense of the PRC's economy. For example, China's foreign exchange black market is increasingly active based on reports from the street.  It probably indicates either the demand for US$ is rising or the gov is tightening the restrictions for official exchanges.

Private businesses' own surveys like this one are quite informative.



This person is in the Unsaturated Polyester Resin (UPR) business with 176 downstream fields (from kitchen countertops, clothing buttons to airplane, vehicles...).  Their Q1 output dropped by 26%, revenue by 41%...  They rushed to have a meeting after seeing the gov's 4.8% GDP growth making them wonder if their #s were wrong, but it turned out to be what everyone knowing the gov would expect.

Their downstream products have 3.7k types covering most of the economy.

In the PRC "4.7M private businesses closed in 2021 ( ≈ 10% of all), over 1M closed in the 1st Q of 2022." - Lew Mon-hung, pro-Beijing HK businessman.

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