Ukraine's Manpower Issue

I have wanted to share my thoughts on Ukraine's manpower issue for a long time mainly because I keep hearing the lie of Ukraine running out of men.

Since I am not a genius like Musk or Sacks who get indisputable truth from pro-Kremlin sources, I can only share my observations and speculation.

Let's first acknowledge that manpower has been an issue from the very beginning of the Rashist invasion. No one disputes it. Otherwise, Ukraine would not have issued the order to ban men 8 to 60 from leaving the country as soon as the Rashist invasion started.

It is true that some Ukrainians do not want to serve for various reasons. Ukraine's current population is 35M-40M with about 10M military-age men. If 10% fo them do not want to serve, and your narrative is Ukrainians do not want to fight, you could theoretically find 1M cases to support your argument.

You could compile a book of Ukrainians evading or resisting conscription. I remember at least 2 of my 3 exits from Ukraine saw a long stop at the border with a man in my train carriage escorted out for further inquiry though both came back and were allowed to leave Ukraine. Many men try hard to leave.

All of these cases do not change the fact that a lot of Ukrainians volunteer to fight. The volunteer number was particularly high initially, over 300,000 overseas Ukrainians returned to their motherland to defend it.

The majority do not mind conscription. The conscription age was 27 until last month when it was lowered to 25. Students are waived from conscription. Again, if you want to support a pro-Kremlin narrative, you can find many cases of enrolling in schools to avoid the draft.

You can randomly pick any city or town in Ukraine (e.g., Kharkiv near the Russian border, Lviv near the Polish border, or small towns in the Carpathian mountains) to take a walk on the street and find zero signs of Ukkraine running out of men. There are plenty of men and a normal, if not higher due to many women allowed to leave the country, men/women ratio everywhere. There are particularly abundant young civilian men.

The most absurd claim I heard recently is about women becoming Uber drivers due to a lack of men. Uber/taxi was my primary means of local transportation in Ukraine (I am still learning to use their excellent public transportation) for all my three trips as recently as in March 2024. I have not seen a single woman Uber/taxi driver. Most drivers are in their 20s to 50s.

Border guard officers appear to be 70% male, and 30% female, not much different from other European countries. 

I have heard the claim that only old men are left to serve.  Let me report the 6 active servicemen I interacted with during my recent trip.

The two I met at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra are in their 40s (probably early 40s), and the three at a bridge post I talked to are in their 20s and 30s. The one who shared a cabin with me on an overnight train looks like a teenager (probably in his early 20s). If he is under 27, it means he volunteered to fight.

I think there are constant Ukrainian videos from the frontlines to dispute this only-old-men-left claim that geniuses like Musk and Sacks believe.

I have no intention to sugarcoat the manpower challenge. I see two obstacles:

1. War fatigue.

2. Civilian disconnect. 

Risking life for a few months to achieve a victory in sight is quite different from risking life for years with no victory in sight. The personal toll of long service and its toll on a serviceman's family can be very significant.

I have ambivalent feelings about the seemingly common disconnect. On the one hand, I want to see as many Ukrainians as possible living their normal lives because it by itself is a sign of victory over the KGB thugs' constant effort to ruin Ukrainians' lives by attacking civilian structures. Even in cities not far from the frontline, restaurants are reasonably busy, malls teem with people, and rush-hour traffic jams remain a daily scene.

 On the other hand, I cannot help wondering if civilians can do a bit more to support the warriors. Especially, well-to-do households with upscale homes and luxury cars may be able to contribute more to the war effort at least temporarily. They would lose the most if Ukraine fails. I wonder if some Ukrainians have become immune or numb to the frontline casualties.

It has been my hope for a long time that minimizing casualties should be Ukraine's #1 priority, territory gain #2 because I believe Ukraine will take back all its territories eventually.

Russia has emptied many prisons to supply cannon fodder. Ukraine does not. Ukraine uses its engineers, scientists, professors, artists, et al. to fight RU convicts. It would be ideal to see a frozen frontline dotted with meat grinders set up by Ukraine to ambush Rashist cannon fodder with an extremely favorable casualty ratio while using long-range strikes to exert maximum pain on PRC's Russia province, and make Eastern Ukraine become Afghanistan 2.0 to induce the collapse of the Russian totalitarian regime again.

A story showing the typical Ukraine spirit told me by a Ukrainian about her relative on a train: 

An Azov Brigade soldier did not follow the order to join his comrades to surrender. He escaped to his home by fooling Rashists with his fluent Russian. After some rest, he went right back to the fight and has been on the frontline since.