Xiamen-Kinmen Bridge, prelude to capturing Kinmen?

 Despite Taiwan's zero interest in the Xiamen-Kinmen Bridge linking the Mainland's Xiamen with Taiwan's Kinmen, the PRC went ahead to build it. The construction of the Xiamen section is in full swing.

This bridge can be one of many potential triggers for the PRC to take Kinmen, which TW has no real interest in defending.

Trump's way of dealing with Moscow thugs may greatly encourage the PRC to take the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, both of which are within the range of the PRC's conventional artillery.

If Witkoff thinks it is understandable for Moscow to send troops to Ukraine to "protect Russian-speaking people" (BTW, most older Ukrainians speak Russian), it will be even more understandable to him for the PRC to send troops to defend Hokkien-speaking people.

Kinmen was never a part of Formosa (the main island of Taiwan) until Chiang was determined to hold it, deploying 100k troops to the island with US support. The ROC (Taiwan) symbolically has a few thousand troops on the island. Even civilians from Xiamen can send amateur drones to tease ROC troops on the island.

If Moscow can play fiddle Witkoff to convince Trump that taking Eastern Ukraine is legitimate, it is only logical to assume Beijing believes it can play the fiddle too to convince Trump that Kinmen and Matsu belong to the mainland.

Beijing will not suddenly send troops to take Kinmen. They never work this way. There will be a propaganda and infiltration campaign to make Kinmen's "patriots" want to return to the motherland, but be oppressed by the Taiwanese authority.  Beijing will claim it can no longer bear watching the suffering of "patriots" in Kinmen, and has no choice but to use force to protect them. Witkoff and Trump will express understanding and choose not to intervene, consistent with their America First doctrine. 

Taiwan will be able to count on Europe's usual outrage, thoughts, and prayers for them, but a few months later, it will look like nothing has happened, and European state heads will beat a path to Beijing.



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