Undefeatable Ukraine (Ukraine: wounded beauty fighting for us VII)

I learned a lot about the great country Ukraine with an 11-day trip across the country. The main feeling that I had after the trip is that Ukrainians are undefeatable based on my layperson's basic knowledge of history and common sense. Please allow me to explain.

I dare not predict how and when the war will end but I am quite certain the KGB thug's goal of installing a puppet like Lukashenko in Kyiv and taking a big chunk of UA's territory is unattainable. 

The free world's aid to UA (HIMARS, ATGMs...) has little to do with the final outcome though it dramatically reduces the cost of UA in terms of the blood of previous and highly productive lives of UA servicemen and servicewomen. 

In other words, without international aid, UA would defeat the KGB thug eventually. The fight could morph into insurgence and the cost for both sides would be extraordinarily high.

It is commonly accepted that current Rashists are in no better relative position in UA than their USSR predecessors in Afghanistan. 

Let's talk about today's Afghanistan a little bit.

Thanks to the current US administration's fiasco, the Taliban were left with lots of fine US weapons. More than a year later, they are yet to conquer the freedom fighters of Panjshir Province with a population of fewer than 200K.

The Panjshir freedom fighters are very much like UA people with the spirit of Live Free or Die.

Here are the strengths of UA that I have observed:

1. Unity. Ukrainians, unlike current Russians, are not under any state indoctrination. They may have a variety of views on many matters. However, the vast majority share the same determination to defend their country.

Many in the east (e.g., Odesa, Mykolaiv) may speak Russian only and have a lot of connections with Russia (friends, relatives), but they detest the KGB thug and have no intention to live under his brutal rule. 

2. Fighting spirit. I encountered a lot of people in uniform and had very long conversations with two. I have never noticed any distress.  I saw nothing but confidence in them.

I wonder if the high spirit has anything to do with the fact that almost 80% of Ukrainians are believers. Though no one wants to die, believers view death as returning home.

3. Resourcefulness and pragmatism. The way I see it is that the US gets 10 out of a piece of equipment, and Afghans were getting 5, but Ukrainians get 15.  I saw lots of examples of pragmatism firsthand but I don't feel I should share them here.

4. Resilience. UA surprised me with how highly functional the country remains. Their trains during this war may be more punctual than their US counterparts. Life and business go on almost as usual for most people despite daily air raids.

5. Sheer size. The war made me realize Ukraine is the 2nd largest country in Europe.  When I was touring Kyiv, I was comparing it to Beijing with which I am very familiar. Kyiv is about the same size as Beijing within the 5th Ring Road but much more hilly.

Tiananmen Square is a million-person square. Suppose 100K Rashists reach Kyiv, I cannot see how troops filling only a corner of Tiananmen Square can take Bejing with fierce resistance by hundreds of thousands of brave fighters.

It took Rashists 3 months to take Mariupol by fighting a few thousand Ukraine soldiers at the cost of 5k to 10k casualties. I thought it was reasonable to assume it would take 1 to 3 years for them to capture Kyiv at the cost of 50k to 100k casualties.

Occupying the city would continue to incur casualties and other high costs.

Invading the beautiful Western mountainous regions would likely be suicides for Rashists. 

The ultimate defeat would be more humiliating than their Afghan venture in the 1980s.

Ukraine: wounded beauty fighting for us