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A simple way to get us through Covid Δ and make everyone happy

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There is one simple solution to get us through Δ quickly and make everyone happy: remove all mandates (vaccination, masking, much of testing) and continue to make vaccination as readily available as possible. Allow me to explain why: No doubt the UK has got through Δ.  Its Δ corona fatality rate is no more than that of mild seasonal flu. The total deaths have been below the baseline (i.e., safer than a normal year) (it may go above the baseline slightly due to the report delay). The UK Δ case rate went up to about 80% of the peak of the previous wave, but its fatality rate topped at only 5% of the previous peak. They went into Δ with about 75% immunized (60% via vaccination, 15% via infection). This means that Δ is so contagious that vaccination offers very limited protection against infection, but tremendous protection again death.  Chances are that most are infected, but the vast majority experience little illness. I keep hearing over 99% of US corona fatalities ar...

Recalling the Korean War by Liu Jiaju: humanitarianism and barbarianism in battlefield( 刘家驹回忆朝鲜战争:硝烟中见证的人性与兽性!)

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This is for those who are unable to access the article on its Chinese website . It deserves English translation to help the world know the full truth of the Korean War. 刘家驹回忆朝鲜战争:硝烟中见证的人性与兽性! 刘家驹:我心里有几分怅然。战争把人情都扭曲了,你死了,如同工作调离,你历险归来,就像出趟差回队,一切都平淡无奇,生生死死的此时此刻,党的关怀麻木了,人的相悯相惜已不如动物的群体。     作者:刘家驹,1931年~2017年,重庆人。1949年底参加中国人民解放军,曾参加朝鲜战争。1962年由炮队训练队副队长调12军军部政治部宣传处,专事革命回忆录采访、写作、整理工作,参加了文革前期安徽省的“支左”,后调任《解放军文艺》编辑组副组长。退休后曾任《炎黄春秋》杂志执行主编。   01   1950年秋,我人民解放军开进了朝鲜战场,更名为中国人民志愿军。大枪小炮换了苏式装备,吃穿用有刚成立的共和国做大后方,本应不再像国内战争时期那样发愁了,可战场上却依然出现断粮。武装到牙齿的联合国军拥有制空权,开战三个月,我军投入的运输车给打掉了一半,仅靠800辆车供应几十万大军打仗,要把战略物资运送到三八线,都是昼伏夜行,再挥军南下三七线作战,就只能用我军的传统战法:武器,不增加一枪一弹;吃的,每人自带7天干粮(炒面)。这种不要后勤的游击,美国人嘲笑我们是一星期的战争,一个战役何止打7天啊!弹尽粮绝还得拼死拼活地持续作战,每到饥荒时刻,我军所到之处,掘地三尺,凿壁捣墙,打翻坛坛罐罐寻找口粮。   我经历的朝鲜战争第五次战役,是从1951年4月22日开始的,到6月10日结束,历时50天,中间只给我们补给了一次干粮,就是说有36天缺粮!我们生存凭借些什么?有人说是我军思想政治工作的巨大威力,我说是人在死里求生时本能的发挥。   战役一开始,我60万志愿军迅速突过三八线。别以为我军攻势如破竹,美国人为了拉长我们的补给线,有意不和我们对着干,他们驾起四个轱辘跑,我们放开两条腿追。7天就追到了离汉城10公里的汉江北岸,丝毫未受损失的敌人知道我们开始饿肚子了,他们在汉城外围的预设阵地上组织起重兵阻击,想...

Poor handling of COVID-19 leading to large human life and economic losses

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 Unless proven otherwise, I believe the current administration has mostly good people working their butts off to fight COVID-19.  Unfortunately, I also believe their poor COVID-19 handling has been leading to large human life and economic losses. Here is why: 1. Vaccination They have done a good job in administering vaccines, but their stubborn stance on double-dose will eventually have caused extra loss of 50-100K lives. The purple line would probably be the mortality rate if the US had done the same as the UK by doing single-dose. Crude estimates show that 2M doses applied to 2M 65+ people with the single-dose scheme save 644 lives while 2M doses applied to 1M 65+ people with the double-dose scheme save 336 lives assuming 10% of them are infected.  Single-dose first also almost double the speed in achieving herd immunity.  Therefore, the UK’s mortality rate dropped rapidly.  The CDC either has or can easily collect the data of reinfection. Chances are the mo...

Covid-19 state of the union (2021-01-28)

 The current hospitalization is the most reliable indicator of Covid-19 infection. The following is the ranking of all the states.  (Data source: The COVID Tracking Project ) Rank State Currently-Hospitalized(/M) 1 HI 50 2 AK 57 3 ND 64 4 OR 78 5 MN 85 6 PR 92 7 VT 99 8 MT 107 9 WA 108 10 WY 111 11 CO 122 12 WI 122 13 IA 124 14 ME 127 15 ID 135 16 MI 154 17 NH 163 18 UT 167 19 NE 177 20 SD 182 21 IL 221 22 KS 223 23 OH 242 24 NM 265 25 MD 271 26 MA 272 27 CT 279 28 IN 284 29 PA 288 30 TN 294 31 WV 301 32 FL 306 33 NC 309 34 MO 311 35 OK 316 36 RI 316 37 VA 317 38 AR 330 39 DE 342 40 LA 342 41 KY 349 42 NJ 351 43 MS 356 44 DC 361 45 SC 405 46 AL 419 47 TX 427 48 NV 429 49 CA 434 50 NY 438 51 GA 466 52 AZ 562

US weekly mortality data (2020 vs 2019) as of 2020-12-27

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COVID-19 has negative impacts on both human lives and the economy. The best single indicator for the latter is the GDP and the one for the former is the excess of deaths that is more objective than COVID fatalities that may include deaths for which COVID is not the primary cause and exclude deaths as a result of COVID's secondary effect. The CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) have large delays that vary among different jurisdictions. The US deaths in 2020 will likely be more than 10% higher than in 2019. The vast majority of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 are from the elderly. For example, the average age of COVID deaths is 80 in Massachusetts. Comorbidities are the most important factor determining the outcome of a COVID patient. In Massachusetts, 98.2% of COVID deaths are from people with comorbidities. The coronavirus is effectively like a death accelerator for people with illnesses. If a person is expected to live no longer than 2 or 3 years, he will likely...