Poor handling of COVID-19 leading to large human life and economic losses

 Unless proven otherwise, I believe the current administration has mostly good people working their butts off to fight COVID-19.  Unfortunately, I also believe their poor COVID-19 handling has been leading to large human life and economic losses.

Here is why:

1. Vaccination

They have done a good job in administering vaccines, but their stubborn stance on double-dose will eventually have caused extra loss of 50-100K lives.

The purple line would probably be the mortality rate if the US had done the same as the UK by doing single-dose.

Crude estimates show that 2M doses applied to 2M 65+ people with the single-dose scheme save 644 lives while 2M doses applied to 1M 65+ people with the double-dose scheme save 336 lives assuming 10% of them are infected. 

Single-dose first also almost double the speed in achieving herd immunity.  Therefore, the UK’s mortality rate dropped rapidly. 

The CDC either has or can easily collect the data of reinfection. Chances are the mortality rate of reinfection is extremely low because previously infected people developed immunity and have proven their immune systems can beat COVID-19.  Vaccinating them cannot be justified.

Until recently, the bottleneck had been the supply.  I think the supply has been largely determined by the previous administration’s Operation Warp Speed which is a stunning success.  The current administration has not done much to speed up the supply.

2. Excessive mitigations. 

Let’s use masking as an example.  I can understand the administration tries to model for the country.  The fact that their WH has had no outbreaks while the previous one had one after another is a testimony to the utility of masking. 

However, excessive masking has hurt sensible face-covering.  How can you fine someone $100 for walking outdoors with large social distancing while allowing maskless people nearby eat, chat, sing without any social distancing?

I waited in a crowded area with NO social distancing for over an hour due to Covid mitigations to make us SAFE before exiting an airport, obeyed the order to do a PCR test, and got the result on my day of departure.   Even if I had carried viruses, everyone would still be happy because veryone would still be happy - the gov did the job of imposing the test, the lab made the money, and the viruses would have infected people during my entire 4-day stay.  Mitigations are becoming costly symbols or jokes.

3. Economic suppression

In Las Vegas,  Caesars's hotels/casinos "are running in the 70s ... 80s on weekdays... and weekends are full".  NV's COVID-19 mortality rate has dropped to a mild flu level.  This shows that indoor activities can be safe, schools can open if appropriate mitigations are taken.

How can cruise ships that require vaccination or tests be less safe than crowded casinos? The administration is destroying a business that many Americans love.

People with common sense all predicted the extra $1.2K/month unemployment benefits would incentivize people to stay unemployed. Restaurant parking lots are full.  With over 8 million job openings, businesses are desperately looking for help, but the current administration is still printing a lot of money to incentivize people to stay at home.

Let’s take the administration’s talking point: people’s fear of going to work is behind the poor job data.  Who are the culprits instigating COVID-19 fear?

The USPS has never stopped working.  Our post carrier told me their office so far has had only 1 case out of about 30 employees including clerks dealing with customers all day long indoors. Think about this in light of the fact that 40% of Americans have been infected so far.

Working is not remotely as dangerous as the administration has implicitly indicated. 

At the start of the pandemic, few people understood it well.  However, the risk could be accurately estimated by last summer with the help of a large amount of data.

The possible reasons for their poor handling that I can think of:

1. Too much political influence in nation health-related decision-making.
2.  Leaning toward binary thinking or lack of the quantitative sense in risk management.
3. Cultish culture in the decision-making circle.

Trump’s poor COVID-19 advisors helped his defeat.

I have started wondering what damages Biden’s COVID-19 advisors do to his agenda and reelection in 2024.