Street view of the PRC's economy
In light of economists' views of the Chinese economy, here is my layperson's view, or a simplistic street view, of the economy of China.
The following contribute to the growth of the economy:
1. ⬆️ number of people working.
2. ⬆️productivity
3. ⬆️portion of people doing useful things.
Here is what I see:
1. ⬇️number of people working.
The official youth unemployment rate is 19.3%. The real number is likely much higher. The PRC does not count migrant workers who go back home after losing jobs in cities. There has been a large wave of them.
2. ⬇️productivity. I am willing to believe technologies are still increasing their productivity. However, the PRC is undoubtedly regressing toward cultural revolution steadily. People familiar with the CR era know how political activities can suppress productivity.
For example, during the CR, half a day was devoted to political study everywhere every week. I have heard they have started to bring this back. Intensifying political interference at every corner will be a broad suppressor of productivity.
3.⬇️portion of people doing useful things.
This may be the part of China that many outside it do not grasp. A significant portion of the population is doing useless or counterproductive work. For example, the giant CCP mafia org with over 7 million dedicated staff. Not only is their work useless for society, but also counterproductive. In other words, if all the 7+ million dedicated party staff had paid vacation, it would be a big boom for the economy. The same for a large number of people dedicated to "maintaining stability". Do the staff of Uyghur concentration camps contribute to the economy or damage the economy?
Even some gov agencies that appear to offer useful services are in this category. I have people from such agencies confessing to me that their work is completely BS, purely symbolic.
This unproductive or counterproductive portion is bound to grow under the brilliant leadership of the middle school dropout (a.k.a. Chairman Xi). Any doubt? Whatch his white-suit army wreaking havoc in China right now.
In summary, as a layperson, I am failing to see how it is possible for the PRC's economy to grow under the middle school dropout's rule.
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