2022 - the most unpredictable year for the PRC since 1989

Probably most would agree this year is the most unpredictable one for the PRC since 1989. Anything dramatic that people have hoped, wished, or been afraid of can happen with a non-minuscule probability - war, CCP internal coup, precipitous economic downturn...

I am talking about possible events with non-negligible probabilities, not probable events.  If the middle school dropout (Xi) manages to survive and hold onto his power, the likely scenario, it is almost impossible for the PRC to continue to grow its power.

This is the best POSSIBLE scenario that I can imagine for him:

1. The yes-men around him manage to find an off-ramp for his zero-tolerance idiocy that is wreaking havoc now. One possible approach is to order the WHO's Tedros to declare the end of the 1st corona pandemic phase, so he can declare his victory in this phase, and phase out the zero-tolerance. Corona will cause short-term pains as in the DPRK, but they can manipulate the data easily.
2. On the economic front, West politicians will continue to sell out their countries to support the PRC - the US will lift tariffs, and Europe will continue its massive imports. They contribute about 10% of the PRC's $15T GDP.
3. Some in his close circle manage to convince him the best time to liberate TW is yet to come.

Even if all these 3 favorable conditions are true, his ongoing regression will continue to gather momentum and be unstoppable.

First, though not the most important, the supply chain shift started a long time ago. The pandemic and the MSD's idiotic handling have accelerated it.

I have some doubts about the German government suddenly waking up and deciding to take meaningful actions regarding PRC human rights violations. I would think they have sensed the best time for investment in the PRC has passed.

The German government will stop all investment guarantee schemes in the Xinjiang region of China due to human rights issues.

Most importantly, the MSD has started his CR 2.0. Few familiar with the PRC doubt this. The CR 1.0 brought the PRC's economy to the brink of collapse. I witnessed it as a kid. The CR 2.0 will have similar effects. It is the timing part that is hard to predict.

I also witnessed the wonders that a little bit of freedom did.  There is no doubt the MSD has been conducting freedom reduction in every aspect of the PRC. This is a universal divider of productivity.

Since some are talking about the middle school dropout rolling back Deng’s reform in the PRC, as a person who witnessed the reform and grew up among bureaucrats executing the policies, let me tell the reform in one sentence.

There is no healthy feedback loop for the MSD because he has:

1. limited deduction capability
2. little induction capability
3. lots of yes-men surrounding him 

He will be constantly misinformed by his yes-men as Putin has been.

The real estate market cannot get better. It is just a question of the speed of deterioration. I have been watching a typical apartment compound in a provincial capital that I am familiar with as an indicator.

It has 21 units for sale now. Each gets about 1 visit/month, not a single one has been sold in the past 3 months.

Most of the middle class's wealth is in this giant bubble.

Diplomats of normal countries try to make friends everywhere. The MSD's wolf warrior Xiplomats (yes, Xiplomacy is a word invented by the MSD's yes-men in MFA) make enemies everywhere.

I have little confidence in the current US administration in dealing with the CCP cancer, but I continue to have confidence in the MSD doing what we wish our gov would do by shooting himself in the foot via his Xiplomats.

The PRC's wisest investment is the purchase of the hearts and souls of Western elites. The ROI of their investment in many developing countries appears to be poor in the long run. The BRI's flagship project CPEC is a typical example. Pragmatic Deng once warned China should avoid being the head of poor countries. I believe he understood the so-called friendship with these countries is hinged on the aid to these countries. 

It is going to be a very uncertain year. The uncertainty offers a little bit of hope and excitement.