It is unfortunate that many institutions that we used to trust highly have lost their credibility significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. One consequence is widespread gross misinformation from people taking advantage of the distrust of traditional institutions.
It is increasingly important for everyone to assess the credibility of information critically and independently. Though I have looked into the current two major types of vaccines - mRNA and deactivated virus, my confidence in the vaccine is largely based on common sense relying on collective wisdom.
Let me show one angle of looking at this.
First, the group in our society who know the most about vaccines are physicians. Are these people who spend 20 years schooling collectively know less about something in their own field than others? I doubt it because it would be against common sense. Are US physicians largely crooks who want to harm people? I doubt it too because it is against common sense and my own personal knowledge. The few physicians I know are all decent people.
Second, let us be extremely conservative and assume US physicians are somehow largely crooks. Are these crooks so evil that they inject something to harm themselves and their family members in order to destroy this planet? This would require a conspiracy involving a million or so physicians. I cannot accept this because this will be far beyond common sense.
The American Medical Association (AMA)'s survey shows 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
I have studied fairly complicated matters and used sophisticated equations in my research. I have long concluded based on my own experience that anything, regardless of its complexity, cannot violate basic laws or be against common sense. There are extremely few exceptions reserved for those who make breakthrough discoveries and are on the way to become a Nobel laureates. Common sense cannot explain everything. A credible theory can explain what common sense cannot but cannot contradict common sense. This rule has worked out perfectly for me over the years.
The following are some of my notes about vaccines.
The following chart shows the history of mRNA development. mRNA vaccine is not a type of product that started only in 2020.
The following chart shows why I prefer mRNA vaccines to viral vector vaccines in principle. The latter needs one more step to produce the mRNA for generating the spike protein triggering antibody production. This extra step is done in our nuclei, so it has one more potential step for things out of whack.
No one can be100% sure about the long-term side effects. It is a question of probability. Anti-vaxxers believe mRNA's devastating long-term side effects are a certainty (i.e., with a probability of 100%). Many including me think it is extremely low.
For most products, the probability of early defects is higher during their initial use than afterward. In engineering, it is called infant failure/mortality as described in the well-known bathtub curve:
For example, a car has higher repair needs in its 1st year than in its 2nd, 3rd, 4th year of use. The bathtub curve apparently cannot be fully applied to vaccines or other medicines because there is no such thing as wear-out for them, however, the early failure concept is applicable to them. The probability of early side effects is much higher than that of long-term side effects. COVID vaccines have been tried on over a billion people. As far as I am concerned, there are no credible significant severe side effects. The word "significant" is highly relevant here. Have vaccines caused injuries or even deaths? I am fairly sure they have. If we were to feed over a billion people with one brand of hamburger, Chinese dumpling, or Japanese noodle, I am sure there would be injuries or deaths for various reasons associated with them or the process of feeding.
It is a fact many countries and regions have seen dramatic overall death reduction (i.e., reduction of deaths from all causes) after vaccination. Many of them see below baseline overall mortality rates (i.e., people are safer pre-pandemic). Please note that the data are from different resources, not from a single authority such as the WHO that has lost its credibility. We can confidently say the claim that mRNA vaccines are killing people rapidly is false. We do not even need to look at data to have this conclusion. Just take a look at people around us to see if they are dying of the vaccine rapidly. If you know someone in a retirement community that likely has every resident vaccinated, you can ask him/her whether they are dying like flies due to the vaccine. I know one and asked him in August. They were fully vaccinated by February and none have died of the vaccine.
We should also know that over 2 million Americans are bound to die following their vaccination this year. This is because 2.9 million Americans die of various causes every year. Most of them are old and sick. They are among the most vaccinated. Some states see over 95% of them vaccinated. Their deaths have nothing to do with the vaccine with perhaps a few exceptions. Their families can choose to report their death to
Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
I have to mention that there is over-vaccination as well as under-vaccination. Both common sense and data suggest natural immunity is protective. Probably over 40% of Americans have been infected by the virus and the majority of them do not need the jab. The CDC has the data and has the ability to collect the data quickly to show the reinfection rate and most importantly reinfection mortality rate that is bound to be very low. The over-vaccination hurts the effort of vaccination by raising people's doubt about the vaccination motivation.
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