The path to recovering all Ukraine's territories

President Pavel's comment on possible post-ceasefire temporary Russian control of some Ukrainian territories caused a stir. His support for Ukraine has been strong and consistent. I think he could express his thoughts better or perhaps he has been misunderstood.

Even if the free world were only partially mobilized to support Ukraine in defeating fascists, Russia would be crushed in months.

Unfortunately, the reality is different:

  1. The US does not want Ukraine to fully utilize its weapons to defeat the enemy and Mr. Jake De-escalation Guru Sullivan has set clear limits to protect Russia to achieve de-escalation.
  2. Neither do some European countries such as Germany.
  3. The biggest manufacturing powerhouse the PRC strongly backs its Russia province and helps its economy grow. The US offers nothing but begging and toothless sanctions to deal with the PRC.
  4. Many European countries continue to fund Russia by purchasing large amounts of its fossil fuels and exporting to it through third countries.
  5. I believe the casualty ratio is favorable to Ukraine, but Ukrainian culture treasures lives while Rashist soldiers are merely numbers for KGB thugs and Russia outnumbers Ukraine 4 to 1 in terms of manpower pool. The toll on Ukraine is heavy and increasing daily.

Considering the above factors, I do not see a certain path to a quick victory (i.e. within 1 or 2 years). It is possible because the 2nd Russian disintegration can happen at any moment, but its timing is unpredictable.

I have never doubted that Ukraine will eventually take back all its territories including Crimea. The only question is the cost and timing.

Without any knowledge of Ukraine's peace plan, I see two possibilities:

  1. Continue the fight and bleeding with the West's half-hearted support and an unpredictable end. Yes, this may accelerate the 2nd Russian disintegration leading to the final victory.
  2. A ceasefire without any territorial concession and return of some lost territories.  In this case, Ukraine starts rapid reconstruction, acceptance into the EU, and preparation to join NATO. The West continues to strengthen sanctions to speed up the KGB regime's collapse.

The PRC under the middle school dropout may collapse at any moment too and it will greatly speed up the 2nd Russian disintegration. 

Ukraine will get back all its territories after the deposition of the KGB thug.

I believe #2 is essentially what President Pavel alluded to. I do not know if it is desirable for him to say this publicly. 

I always hope all Ukraine supporters can try to put ourselves in the shoes of the parents, spouses, and kids of the warriors in the trench.

I have friends in the AFU. Three tours of Ukraine benefit me with a realistic picture of the situation in the country besides spawning tremendous love and admiration for it.

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