I am in no position to assess any economist thesis. However, there are certain universally unbreakable rules one of which is the foundational assumption must be valid. That is where I have issues with many PRC-related economic theses. If someone predicts anything related to the PRC, I would like to know first the basis no matter how prominent he is. If he says it is based on the gov's planned GDP growth rate and its promise to promote private businesses, I would run away from him immediately and fast. I just do not know how in principle anyone can predict with confidence and specificity how the PRC will move under a mafia. I grew up among CCP bureaucrats and still keep in touch with people inside and outside the system in the PRC.  I am fairly sure about the direction of the middle school dropout - broad regression, but I dare not predict the specific turns and timing. I had no clue the MSD would wipe out the education service overnight even though I knew private education was on b...

 Like any issue nowadays, there is misinformation on both sides of EV.  On one end is a religious belief in EV treating it as a silver bullet to remedy all kinds of environmental issues with all upsides and no downsides. On the other end is absurd claims against EVs by people who apparently have never used an EV.  For example, a popular Facebook post  gives people the impression that it is easy for EVs to get stuck on highways to become roadblocks (I suspect the author modified the post later to moderate the tone).  The heating systems of modern EVs use compressors, so they are very efficient. Even a half-charged EV can keep the driver warm for 10 to 20 hours.  For an EV, it comes down to two metrics regarding environmental impact no matter how one analyzes it: MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent). It means how many miles an EV can drive with the electricity generated by 1 gallon of gasoline. Most EVs have MPGe over 100.  Lifetime greenhouse gas (GHG) em...

If I were Putin, I would have invaded Ukraine because this is what Putin saw in over a decade: Russia: 2000 brutal Chechen War II, costly but successful. 2008 Russo-Georgian War, success with 20% Georgian territory under Russian control currently. 2014 Crimea annexation, a spectacular success with little cost. The West, led by Germany, warmed quickly to Russia after the initial sanction. 2015 Syrian operation, another spectacular success by crushing Syrian opposition forces supported by the West. West: The trillion $ Iraq war ended disastrously with US’s arch-enemy Iran controlling the country. The trillion $ Afghan war ended with a spectacular fiasco and a country firmly in the PRC’s hands. The West did nothing after the PRC broke its promise and militarized the SCS. The US president has been working diligently on the wrongdoing list handed to him by the PRC one item after another. The US passed intelligence about Russia to the PRC which in turn passed it all to Putin. Don’t these fac...

Twitter suspended my account because I posted the following tweet with the video: "Does this forced removal remind you of something that happened over 8 decades ago? By no means do they deserve this, but I would like to point out an irony: many of them likely support regular forced removals of Uyghurs for a different reason. " Many similar videos have been posted on Twitter. I suspect they suspended my account because I used the word "Uyghurs" to which the CCP is highly sensitive. The suspension appears automatic.